Lokomotiv Plovdivvs
CSKA Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/20/2026, 2:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CSKA Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-2 CSKA Sofia, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 CSKA Sofia
Original prediction
CSKA Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.09 | 15.1% | 9.4% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.9% | 19.4% | -5.5 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 60.0% | 71.3% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Projected Score
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 CSKA Sofia
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
CSKA Sofia
Probability
71.3%
Model confidence
71.3%
CSKA Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00