Lokomotiv Plovdivvs
Cherno More Varna
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna
Original prediction
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 36.1% | 41.0% | 5.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.9% | 28.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 33.0% | 31.0% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40