Lokomotiv Plovdivvs
Arda Kardzhali
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-0 Arda Kardzhali, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 Arda Kardzhali
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.2% | 33.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.5% | 30.7% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 39.3% | 35.8% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Projected Score
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–0 Arda Kardzhali
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.7%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lokomotiv PlovdivDLWLL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Arda KardzhaliDLLWW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
43.3Attack56.7
70.0Defence66.7
53.3Form56.7
56.3Power60.8
0.94xG0.97