Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsavs
Septemvri Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Cup · 10/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2-1 Septemvri Sofia
Original prediction
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 12:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.54 | 20.0% | 39.1% | 19.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.9% | 25.9% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 55.1% | 35.0% | -20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 3.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40