Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsavs
Nesebar
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/15/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1-1 Nesebar
Original prediction
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.1% | 35.6% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.5% | 29.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.17 | 21.4% | 35.2% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60