Lobos Upnfmvs
CD Marathon
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 10/11/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Marathon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lobos Upnfm 0-1 CD Marathon, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lobos Upnfm 0-0 CD Marathon
Original prediction
CD Marathon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 28.7% | 18.0% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.4% | 24.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 42.9% | 57.3% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Projected Score
Lobos Upnfm 0–1 CD Marathon
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
CD Marathon
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
CD Marathon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60