Lobos Upnfmvs
Atlético Choloma
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/13/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Choloma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lobos Upnfm 1-0 Atlético Choloma
Original prediction
Atlético Choloma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.1% | 35.0% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.3% | 28.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 24.6% | 36.8% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Choloma
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Atlético Choloma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00