Lobos ULMXvs
Tritons Vallarta
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tritons Vallarta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lobos ULMX 2-1 Tritons Vallarta
Original prediction
Tritons Vallarta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.5% | 33.5% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.4% | 28.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.1% | 38.3% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Tritons Vallarta
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Tritons Vallarta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00