Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballkani · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Llapi 0-1 Ballkani
Original prediction
Ballkani
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 29.0% | 25.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.5% | 25.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 44.5% | 48.6% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Ballkani
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Ballkani has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LlapiWLLWL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
BallkaniLDLWW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LlapiBallkani
38.1Attack42.9
0.0Defence61.9
14.3Form47.6
20.0Power52.3
0.95xG1.74