Llanuwchllynvs
Caersws
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caersws · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Llanuwchllyn 2-5 Caersws
Original prediction
Caersws
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.3% | 25.4% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.2% | 21.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 44.5% | 53.2% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Caersws
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Caersws has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LlanuwchllynDWWLD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
CaerswsLWWWL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LlanuwchllynCaersws
45.8Attack61.9
29.2Defence57.1
45.8Form61.9
41.0Power60.8
1.36xG2.37