llanelli AFCvs
Carmarthen Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carmarthen Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
llanelli AFC 2-2 Carmarthen Town
Original prediction
Carmarthen Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.45 | 26.2% | 25.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.5% | 21.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 50.3% | 53.2% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Carmarthen Town
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Carmarthen Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 20 · avg 0.80/4.00
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40