llanelli AFCvs
Baglan Dragons
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baglan Dragons · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
llanelli AFC 1-2 Baglan Dragons
Original prediction
Baglan Dragons
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.8% | 21.1% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 23.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 43.9% | 55.1% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Baglan Dragons
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Baglan Dragons has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40