llanelli AFCvs
Afan Lido
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/23/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Afan Lido · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
llanelli AFC 0-3 Afan Lido
Original prediction
Afan Lido
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.78 | 18.9% | 19.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.0% | 20.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 60.2% | 60.3% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Afan Lido
Probability
60.3%
Model confidence
60.3%
Afan Lido has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 19 · avg 0.60/3.80
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00