Llandudnovs
Caernarfon Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Llandudno 1-1 Caernarfon Town
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.09 | 29.0% | 30.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.2% | 24.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 44.8% | 44.6% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20