Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NK Ormoz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ljutomer 1-1 NK Ormoz
Original prediction
NK Ormoz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 31.4% | 36.5% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.2% | 23.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.4% | 39.6% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.88 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
NK Ormoz
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
NK Ormoz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LjutomerLWLWW
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
NK OrmozLWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 2.25/1.50
BTTS 3/4O2.5 3/4
LjutomerNK Ormoz
66.7Attack75.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form75.0
54.2Power68.0
1.85xG1.83