Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Livorno · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Livorno 3-2 Vado
Original prediction
Livorno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.8% | 38.1% | -15.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.9% | 29.4% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.71 | 19.3% | 32.6% | 13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Livorno
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Livorno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LivornoLWDDW
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
VadoLLLDW
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LivornoVado
36.1Attack50.0
52.8Defence50.0
39.8Form50.0
45.1Power50.0
1.00xG1.16