Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Livorno · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Livorno 3-2 Pianese
Original prediction
Livorno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.7% | 37.7% | -15.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.4% | 29.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 20.9% | 32.7% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Livorno
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Livorno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LivornoDWLWD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PianeseDLDLD
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LivornoPianese
36.1Attack42.1
52.8Defence57.9
39.8Form46.5
45.1Power50.5
0.96xG1.10