Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grosseto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Livorno 4-4 Grosseto
Original prediction
Grosseto
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 46.2% | 33.1% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.4% | 28.8% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 26.4% | 38.1% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Grosseto
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Grosseto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LivornoDLWDW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
GrossetoWLWWD
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LivornoGrosseto
40.7Attack63.0
63.0Defence66.7
55.6Form66.7
56.2Power65.9
0.89xG1.30