Livingstonvs
Ayr Utd
COMPLETEDScotland · Championship · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Livingston · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Livingston 1-0 Ayr Utd, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Livingston 1-2 Ayr Utd
Original prediction
Livingston
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 59.3% | 54.1% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 27.0% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.13 | 17.8% | 18.9% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Projected Score
Livingston 1–0 Ayr Utd
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Livingston
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Livingston has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LivingstonWDWLL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Ayr UtdLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LivingstonAyr Utd
50.0Attack29.2
70.8Defence62.5
54.2Form33.3
58.4Power43.3
1.29xG0.55