Liverpool Wvs
Manchester United W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 10/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool W 3-5 Manchester United W
Original prediction
Manchester United W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.3% | 35.9% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.1% | 25.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 38.6% | 38.8% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United W
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Manchester United W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 21 · GA 4 · avg 4.20/0.80