Liverpoolvs
Villarreal
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 64.4% | 49.8% | -14.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 20.2% | 23.7% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 6.20 | 15.4% | 26.5% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80