Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Liverpool are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Toulouse are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Liverpool hold a 22.3-point power-rating edge (72.1 v 49.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 71.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while Liverpool holds the strongest overall chance at 71% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
71.0%
Model confidence
71.0%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80