Liverpoolvs
Atletico Madrid
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 9/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 54.4% | 52.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 24.0% | 22.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.41 | 21.6% | 24.3% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40