Lithuania Wvs
Sweden W
COMPLETEDWorld · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/9/2026, 4:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sweden W · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lithuania W 0-5 Sweden W
Original prediction
Sweden W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 32.40 | 2.9% | 32.9% | 30.0 pts |
| Draw | 14.09 | 6.7% | 23.6% | 17.0 pts |
| Away | 1.04 | 90.4% | 43.4% | -47.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-47.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Sweden W
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Sweden W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20