Lithuaniavs
Azerbaijan
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/27/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lithuania · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan
Original prediction
Lithuania
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 41.0% | 52.0% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 31.5% | 26.0% | -5.5 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 27.5% | 21.9% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Lithuania
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Lithuania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00