Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lithuania · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lithuania 3-0 Andorra
Original prediction
Lithuania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 57.6% | 48.9% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.8% | 27.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 5.94 | 15.6% | 23.4% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Lithuania
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Lithuania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LithuaniaDWLWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
AndorraDLLWL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LithuaniaAndorra
0.0Attack16.7
83.3Defence44.4
16.7Form22.2
36.5Power29.9
1.49xG0.83