Lithuania U21vs
Croatia U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/6/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Croatia U21 · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (12%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lithuania U21 0-1 Croatia U21
Original prediction
Croatia U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.91 | 8.4% | 10.2% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.68 | 16.1% | 16.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 75.6% | 73.8% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Croatia U21
Probability
73.8%
Model confidence
73.8%
Croatia U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00