Lipno Stęszewvs
Kalisz
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kalisz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lipno Stęszew 1-0 Kalisz
Original prediction
Kalisz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.6% | 35.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.7% | 26.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 38.7% | 37.9% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Kalisz
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Kalisz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20