Lionsvs
South Hobart
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australian Championship · 10/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lions 1-2 South Hobart
Original prediction
Lions
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.09 | 84.7% | 50.2% | -34.6 pts |
| Draw | 9.10 | 10.1% | 23.6% | 13.4 pts |
| Away | 18.02 | 5.1% | 26.3% | 21.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-34.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lions
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40