Lionsvs
Peninsula Power
COMPLETEDAustralia · Queensland NPL · 8/28/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lions 4-1 Peninsula Power
Original prediction
Lions
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.3% | 57.0% | 11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.9% | 19.7% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 29.8% | 23.3% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Lions
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LionsWWWWW
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Peninsula PowerDDLDL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LionsPeninsula Power
86.4Attack74.2
66.7Defence59.1
80.3Form68.2
77.2Power67.5
2.39xG1.35