Liniersvs
Excursionistas
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 10/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excursionistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Liniers 0-1 Excursionistas, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Liniers 1-0 Excursionistas
Original prediction
Excursionistas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.91 | 23.0% | 18.0% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.8% | 30.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.2% | 51.7% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Projected Score
Liniers 0–1 Excursionistas
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Excursionistas
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Excursionistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00