Linfieldvs
Crusaders FC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Linfield · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Linfield 1-0 Crusaders FC
Original prediction
Linfield
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 72.7% | 53.7% | -19.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.35 | 16.8% | 23.3% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 8.61 | 10.5% | 23.1% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Linfield
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Linfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80