Linfieldvs
Carrick Rangers
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Linfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Linfield 1-0 Carrick Rangers
Original prediction
Linfield
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 55.1% | 39.6% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.4% | 27.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.44 | 20.5% | 33.1% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Linfield
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Linfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80