Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lund · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Linero are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Lund are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lund hold a 4.3-point power-rating edge (32.2 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lund holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lund
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
10.2%
Lund has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60