GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/30/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Lincoln are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Manchester United U21 are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 31.4-point power-rating edge (53.5 v 22.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Lincoln holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lincoln

Probability

53.7%

Model confidence

53.7%

Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LincolnWLWWD

GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Manchester United U21DLDWW

GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
LincolnManchester United U21
33.3Attack55.6
75.0Defence0.0
50.0Form11.1
53.5Power22.2
2.07xG1.20
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