Lincolnvs
Manchester United U21
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 9/30/2025, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lincoln are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Manchester United U21 are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 31.4-point power-rating edge (53.5 v 22.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Lincoln holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20