GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/3/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chesterfield · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Lincoln are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Chesterfield are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Chesterfield hold a 14.8-point power-rating edge (53.5 v 68.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Chesterfield holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chesterfield

Probability

36.8%

Model confidence

36.8%

Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LincolnWWLLW

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ChesterfieldLDDWL

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LincolnChesterfield
33.3Attack53.3
75.0Defence66.7
50.0Form73.3
53.5Power68.4
1.23xG1.36
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