Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lincoln are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Bolton are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 35.0-point power-rating edge (53.5 v 88.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60