Limavady Unitedvs
Ballymena United
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballymena United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Limavady United 3-2 Ballymena United
Original prediction
Ballymena United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.30 | 27.5% | 29.8% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 28.2% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 47.3% | 41.9% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Ballymena United
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Ballymena United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00