Lillestromvs
Real Sociedad
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Sociedad · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad
Original prediction
Real Sociedad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.21 | 15.2% | 35.1% | 19.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.84 | 19.5% | 26.1% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 65.3% | 38.8% | -26.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Real Sociedad
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Real Sociedad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60