Lillestromvs
Molde
COMPLETEDNorway · Eliteserien · 10/11/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Molde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lillestrom 2-2 Molde
Original prediction
Molde
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 37.1% | 33.4% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.3% | 26.7% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.6% | 39.9% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Molde
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Molde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LillestromWLLWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MoldeWLWWW
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
LillestromMolde
44.4Attack69.8
54.0Defence49.2
50.8Form57.1
50.7Power59.0
1.43xG1.81