Lillestromvs
Fredrikstad
COMPLETEDNorway · Eliteserien · 8/30/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lillestrom · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lillestrom 1-4 Fredrikstad
Original prediction
Lillestrom
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 53.3% | 56.8% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.4% | 23.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.40 | 21.3% | 19.3% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Lillestrom
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Lillestrom has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00