Lillestrøm IIvs
Fauske Sprint
COMPLETEDNorway · 3. Division - Girone 5 · 9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lillestrøm II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lillestrøm II 2-4 Fauske Sprint
Original prediction
Lillestrøm II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 68.3% | 43.7% | -24.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.63 | 15.9% | 22.4% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 5.70 | 15.8% | 33.9% | 18.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
Lillestrøm II
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Lillestrøm II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 8 · avg 3.40/1.60
GF 13 · GA 17 · avg 2.60/3.40