Lillevs
Stade Brestois 29
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 10/17/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29
Original prediction
Lille
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 49.1% | 48.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.6% | 25.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.75 | 25.3% | 26.7% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Lille
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Lille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LilleLWWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Stade Brestois 29WDLLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LilleStade Brestois 29
50.0Attack66.7
77.8Defence50.0
72.2Form44.4
68.7Power53.5
1.67xG1.11