Lillevs
Paris Saint Germain
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lille 2-2 Paris Saint Germain
Original prediction
Lille
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.87 | 19.5% | 39.0% | 19.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.4% | 26.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 56.1% | 34.9% | -21.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.90 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Lille
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Lille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LilleWDDWL
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Paris Saint GermainDLWDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LilleParis Saint Germain
66.7Attack66.7
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
1.85xG1.13