Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lille are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while PAOK are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and PAOK hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (48.5 v 54.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40