Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lille · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lille 1-0 Le Havre
Original prediction
Lille
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 66.7% | 58.7% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.76 | 20.0% | 23.5% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 7.16 | 13.3% | 17.8% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Lille
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Lille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LilleWLWLW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Le HavreWLDLD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LilleLe Havre
53.3Attack26.7
73.3Defence53.3
66.7Form13.3
66.0Power34.4
1.74xG0.71