Lillevs
Galatasaray
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/21/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lille 2-4 Galatasaray
Original prediction
Lille
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 43.3% | 41.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 26.1% | 26.2% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 30.6% | 32.9% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lille
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Lille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LilleDLWWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GalatasarayWLWDL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LilleGalatasaray
33.3Attack33.3
0.0Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
16.3Power17.3
1.76xG1.51