Lillevs
Estac Troyes
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 9/13/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes
Original prediction
Lille
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 67.1% | 56.2% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.74 | 20.0% | 23.2% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 7.31 | 13.0% | 20.6% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Lille
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Lille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LilleLWDWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Estac TroyesLWDDD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
LilleEstac Troyes
55.6Attack44.4
77.8Defence22.2
77.8Form44.4
72.8Power40.1
2.07xG1.01