Lilla Torgvs
Nosaby
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Götaland · 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nosaby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lilla Torg 2-3 Nosaby
Original prediction
Nosaby
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.9% | 34.1% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.6% | 21.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.5% | 44.2% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Nosaby
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Nosaby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40