Lilla Torgvs
Karlshamn
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Götaland · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lilla Torg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lilla Torg 5-1 Karlshamn
Original prediction
Lilla Torg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.2% | 66.1% | 14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 23.9% | 17.8% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 24.9% | 16.1% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Lilla Torg
Probability
66.1%
Model confidence
66.1%
Lilla Torg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40